With gold prices hitting fresh highs, investors are wondering: Will gold touch ₹1,25,000 per 10 grams in India? While it may sound ambitious, the global economic landscape is setting the stage for such possibilities.
Let’s explore the factors driving gold, expert predictions, and whether it makes sense to bet on gold in 2025 and beyond.
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Gold Price Today (March 2025)
As of today, gold is trading around ₹72,000 per 10 grams in India. This is a significant jump from pre-COVID levels of ₹35,000 in 2019 — effectively doubling in 5–6 years.
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Why Gold Could Reach ₹1,25,000
To reach ₹1,25,000, gold would need to rise over 70% from current levels. While that may sound steep, several macroeconomic factors are already aligning:
1. Central Banks Are Hoarding Gold
Global central banks are diversifying away from the US dollar and loading up on gold reserves:
China has been consistently adding to its gold holdings.
Poland’s central bank has doubled down on gold buying.
India’s RBI also increased its gold reserves, signaling long-term confidence.
This institutional demand adds a strong base for gold prices to rise.
2. Donald Trump Tariffs & US Election Volatility
With the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power in the 2024 US Elections, markets expect more aggressive tariffs on China and other countries. That could fuel a new wave of global trade uncertainty — a known trigger for gold rallies.
3. Gold Is a Limited Asset
Gold is finite in supply. New discoveries are rare, and mining costs are rising. At the same time, demand is growing — from central banks, retail investors, and the electronics sector. This supply-demand imbalance could drive prices higher.
4. Rising Global Uncertainty
War in Ukraine and the Middle East
Global debt at all-time highs
Recession fears in Europe and the US
Currency debasement
Gold is often considered the most stable asset class during uncertain times.
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Historical Gold CAGR (India)
10-Year CAGR: ~9% (2014–2024)
20-Year CAGR: ~11% (2004–2024)
In the last 5 years alone, gold has doubled from ₹35,000 to ₹70,000 — that’s around 15% CAGR
This makes gold a proven long-term performer, especially during economic stress.
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But Gold Also Corrects…
Gold isn’t a straight-line growth story. It has seen major corrections:
2012–2015: Gold corrected 20–30% globally
2020–2021: After hitting ₹56,000, gold fell back to ₹44,000 before bouncing again
High prices often lead to periods of consolidation or dip
Investors should be prepared for volatility and avoid going “all-in” expecting a quick double.
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Ideal Gold Allocation in Your Portfolio
Financial advisors recommend allocating:
5% to 10% of your portfolio in gold
For conservative investors, this offers protection during equity downturns
Prefer Gold ETFs, Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), or Digital Gold for safety and ease
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Expert Forecasts
UBS, Citi, and Goldman Sachs expect gold to cross $2,500/oz by 2026
For gold to reach ₹1,25,000 in India:
Global price must reach $3,200/oz
INR/USD rate must remain above ₹82
While it’s a bold target, a mix of currency weakness, inflation, and global chaos could make it happen.
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FAQ
Q1. Will gold reach ₹1,25,000 soon?
It’s possible in the long term, especially with global economic turmoil. But don’t expect it overnight.
Q2. Is this a good time to buy gold?
Gold is at a high, but SIPs in gold ETFs or SGBs help average costs and reduce timing risk.
Q3. How much gold should I hold?
Stick to 5–10% of your total portfolio, depending on your risk appetite.
Q4. Why is gold considered a hedge?
Gold protects purchasing power when inflation rises and currencies lose value.
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Final Thoughts
Gold at ₹1,25,000 is not an unrealistic dream — it’s a real possibility over the next few years. With central banks piling in, geopolitical tensions rising, and global currencies under pressure, gold may continue its upward march.
But remember — gold is for protection, not speculation. Allocate wisely, invest consistently, and use it to balance your overall wealth portfolio.
Stox N Tax 
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